Playoff Bubble Watch After Week 8: Big 12 Still Has a Path to Two Bids

Week 8 hurt the Big 12's chances of landing multiple teams in the College Football Playoff, but a route to two bids remains. BYU and Utah could both qualify as the conference champion and runner-up under the right sequence of results.

The scenario starts with BYU beating Utah in the regular season. If Notre Dame then defeats Miami and wins out, BYU would hold one of the best wins in the country. With victories over Utah, Notre Dame and Arizona, BYU could then lose a rematch to Utah in the Big 12 title game. Utah would take the conference crown, and two-loss BYU would still carry wins over the eventual champion and Notre Dame.

Miami remains the clear choice for No. 1 in the latest projection. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the Hurricanes a 97.4% chance of reaching the playoff, the best in the nation. Miami leads the country in scoring offense at 49 points per game and ranks 11th in scoring defense at 15.3. ESPN's Football Power Index still projects a narrow loss at Notre Dame on Nov. 7. A two-loss ACC runner-up would invite debate if that happens and Miami misses the conference title.

SMU is another team to watch. The 6-1 Mustangs beat Cal 59-20 for their fourth straight win and face Wake Forest on Nov. 14 and Notre Dame on Nov. 21. They could finish as a one-loss ACC champion or as a two-loss runner-up with a win over Notre Dame.

In the Big 12, Utah earned its first win over a ranked opponent by beating Houston, but it ranks behind BYU in the projection. Its schedule strength of No. 89 is last in the conference. Upcoming games at Cincinnati, against BYU and at Arizona could either legitimize or sink its hopes. Arizona, with one loss and no ranked wins, faces Texas Tech on Saturday and Utah on Nov. 14.

In the Big Ten, undefeated UCLA is on a notable turnaround after winning three games last season, though it ranks 41st in offensive efficiency. Ohio State faces questions at quarterback with starter Julian Sayin injured, and its trip to USC will give the committee data before its first ranking. In the SEC, Georgia plays Florida on Saturday after an Oct. 17 home loss to Auburn, and Georgia has the best odds to reach the SEC title game at 69.2%.

Notre Dame plays Navy on Saturday before hosting Miami on Nov. 7. A two-loss finish would not guarantee the Irish a spot, but a clean run would produce wins over Wisconsin, Miami and SMU and a strong case for a first-round bye. Among Group of 6 teams, Boise State has a 47.6% chance of reaching the playoff, well ahead of New Mexico at 20%. The Broncos host Oregon State and freshman receiver Jesse Legree on Nov. 14.

The projected bracket gives byes to Miami, Ohio State, Georgia and BYU. The first round would feature Boise State at Notre Dame, Ole Miss at Indiana, Texas at Utah and Kentucky at UCLA, with games on campus Dec. 18 and 19.