Hochul Widens Lead Over Blakeman to 14 Points in New Siena Poll

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has stretched her advantage over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman to double digits, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll released Wednesday. The survey suggests the Democratic incumbent is gaining ground in the closing days of the campaign.

Among likely voters, Hochul leads the Nassau County executive 54% to 40%. That 14-point gap is five points wider than in September, when she held a 50% to 41% edge.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said Blakeman is running short on time. "Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing," he said in a statement.

The poll also pointed to trouble for Blakeman in regions where Republicans usually need to perform well to compete statewide. He and Hochul are virtually tied in upstate New York and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul leads among independents by 11 points. Greenberg noted that Republicans typically need strong showings in those areas and with independents to offset the Democrats' roughly two-to-one voter registration advantage and their dominance in New York City.

Voters were less certain about the economy. A plurality of 35% said neither candidate would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers, while 30% chose Hochul and 27% picked Blakeman.

Hochul's personal standing improved as well. Some 51% of likely voters view her favorably and 45% unfavorably, the first time a majority has rated her favorably in Siena polling during her five years as governor. Her job approval rose to 51% from 48% in September. Blakeman's ratings were 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

The survey found a notable gender gap. Hochul leads Blakeman by 23 points among women and six points among men. She also holds an 81% to 16% advantage among Black voters, while White voters are closely divided.

Most voters expect her to prevail: 68% of likely voters said they believe Hochul will win, compared with 23% who predicted a Blakeman victory. Among Republicans surveyed, 40% said they expect Hochul to win.

In other statewide contests, Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%. Democratic state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%.

Siena conducted the poll from Oct. 19 to 22 among 807 likely New York voters, using telephone and text-to-web surveys. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Election Day is Nov. 3.