640,000 First-Time Voters Could Reshape 12 Seats in Israel's Election

Israel heads to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, with a bloc of newly eligible voters positioned to influence a slice of the 120-seat Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates 640,000 people aged 18 to 22 can vote. Their share of the electorate, close to 10%, is large enough to affect as many as 12 seats.

The institute surveyed prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters in May. Between 80% and 95% of respondents across groups said they would definitely or probably vote. Among Arabs, 87% said they intend to vote. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found 67% of young respondents certain of voting, with another 19% considering it. By comparison, youth turnout reached 47% in the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. An N12 poll on Sept. 23 found 74% of young people describing themselves as right-wing or center-right, against 23% on the left or center-left.

Tammy Hoffman, who heads the education policy program at the IDI, said the institute co-sponsored an event with the Yigal Allon Center ahead of the vote. "Israel is a young country with a high birth rate," she said. "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference." Hoffman noted that this generation moved through junior high during COVID, watched the judicial reform protests, and lived through Oct. 7. National security and the cost of living ranked highest among Jewish and Arab respondents in both surveys.

Yael Chernyvsky, 18, of Ramat Hasharon, is in an army preparation program in the Negev. She told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency earlier this month she is voting "so we can change the future of this country." She has not chosen a party but said she will "probably" support the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both sit in the opposition "change bloc" that wants Benjamin Netanyahu out of office. Netanyahu has served as prime minister since 2009, apart from a brief break in 2021 and 2022.

Omer Gross of Jerusalem, in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to vote for the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He disagrees with Smotrich's approach in Gaza but backs his West Bank policies, saying, "We need a strong, secure Israel." His program-mate Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herziliyah, will vote for the change bloc and wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, of Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party that will close resource gaps in Arab communities and tackle crime.

A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M because IDF regulations require anonymity, said universal service is his top priority but that he will vote for the Democrats on economic grounds, citing tuition, books, food and housing. He added that he is urging friends to vote and, whatever the result, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."