Goldknopf's budget bid and Bennett's pivot could break Israel's deadlock

With voting set to begin within the next 24 hours, Israeli political figures are evaluating scenarios that could hinge on three seats held by Agudat Yisrael and the strategic moves of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Assessments within the political establishment indicate that the three-MK faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf may offer support to an opposition-led government in exchange for specific budgetary agreements.

This potential cooperation is not new. Maariv reported in August that Agudat Yisrael was exploring fresh political options, including working with Gadi Eisenkot. Those talks occurred amid internal friction within United Torah Judaism, specifically between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah. The disagreements centered on the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the current coalition's behavior, while Degel Hatorah showed a lack of confidence in Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando also added to the uncertainty by expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led bloc in a written letter. Despite these internal strains, Goldknopf faces a hurdle: his voters are largely aligned with the Right. Analysts suggest that any visible support for a change bloc government could push some of his base toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

Even if Agudat Yisrael backs the opposition, it may not guarantee a majority. Some scenarios still require votes from Arab parties to secure a governing coalition. If neither the Right nor the change bloc reaches the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, attention turns to Bennett. Political circles are discussing whether Bennett might join a Netanyahu-led government in such a deadlock.

This scenario is considered remote. However, some believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc with the Right-wing background to make such a shift, though his current party composition complicates the move. A similar step by Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman has also been raised, given his history of serving as defense minister under Netanyahu. Yet, current assessments hold that Liberman is far from such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister.

The ability of any politician to shift their base of support will be a central issue in upcoming negotiations. These possibilities remain political assessments and scenarios rather than finalized agreements between parties. The final government structure will depend on whether Goldknopf's faction secures a budget deal and whether Bennett or another leader is willing to bridge the partisan divide.