Lula Wins Brazil Runoff; Annulment Bid Follows

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will return to Brazil's presidency on Jan. 5, 2027, after winning a runoff against Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula collected more than 64 million votes to Bolsonaro's just under 60 million, a margin of nearly 4%. The result hands Lula a fourth non-consecutive term in office.

Voting hours were extended nationwide just minutes before the scheduled 5 p.m. close on Sunday, a decision made by a Supreme Court justice at both candidates' requests. Lula cited public transportation problems in Sao Paulo and Salvador, two cities where he draws strong support. Bolsonaro sought the extension after heavy rain in the south, a region he carried in the first round. Many polling stations had already begun wrapping up when the news arrived.

Bolsonaro said at a Sunday news conference that he would seek an annulment of the election. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a 27-year sentence for a coup attempt and is under house arrest; Flávio Bolsonaro visited him on Monday, according to his public relations office. The elder Bolsonaro contested his 2022 loss to Lula and lost. President Donald Trump said Monday that he thought the tabulation "had a very bad look" and called it "another rigged election, frankly," without providing evidence.

The electoral authority's president, Kassio Nunes, appointed to the Supreme Court by Jair Bolsonaro, recognized Lula's victory Sunday. Early reactions from Brazilian institutions and regional leaders, including conservative presidents opposed to Lula, point toward the result being accepted at home and abroad. Benjamin Gedan, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, pointed to "Lula's margin of victory, and the quick recognition of the result by conservative leaders in the region."

The first round produced a record number of abstentions; the runoff posted the fewest ever. Between the two rounds, 14.1 million additional voters appeared at the polls, including those who had backed other candidates in round one. Analysts said three quarters of those votes went to Lula. It was the first time since 1989 that a candidate came from behind in the first round to win the second.

Lula handed his digital campaign to lawmaker André Janones, who built a WhatsApp channel called "Lula's Army" that drew almost 11 million members and pushed campaign messaging across social media. Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas in Sao Paulo, said Janones "basically embraced the right's style of aggressive politics, very intense, constant messaging." Stuenkel added, "The defeat in the first round jolted the Lula campaign into action. The strategy during the first round was lackluster and saw a lot of infighting."

Juliano Cortinhas, an international relations professor at the University of Brasília, said the campaign's social media push also pressured Meta, which owns Instagram, WhatsApp and Facebook, over what Lula's team called bias favoring Bolsonaro. Brazil's top electoral court ruled on Oct. 15 that Meta must adopt measures assuring equal treatment of both candidates; the company said it addressed the matter. Cortinhas said, "There was external interference we were suffering by major platforms."

Jorge Henrique Oliveira Sena, a 26-year-old maintenance worker in Brasilia, skipped the first round and voted for Lula in the runoff. "It's not a question of supporting, but between the two, I had more of a connection with him," he said. Turnout rose most in wealthier metropolitan centers, while Lula's largest gains came in lower-income municipalities where his base already existed.

Brazil's electoral machines have been in use since the 1990s, and results normally appear within hours of polls closing. No significant fraud has been detected in the system. Lula takes office on Jan. 5, 2027, facing a right-wing Congress in which Bolsonaro's party will hold more seats than any other; Bolsonaro remains a senator, with his term ending in January. Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly, said, "We shouldn't underestimate the power of the Bolsonaro family. They can make life difficult for Lula for weeks and months to come."